The Black Swan

First, an admission: I have not finished this book. In fact, I have read only a little over two thirds of it. However, I'm not sure that's as much of a problem as it would be for other books - which brings me to my first comment.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (or NNT, as he refers to himself) is explaining a single concept, over and over, from many angles. The book itself could easily be divided into many short essays, each a page or two long. I admit it is certainly possible that the last third of the book contains something completely new - indeed, if I did not admit this, I would have failed to grasp the basic concept he is trying to explain - but I will dare make a prediction anyway, and say that most likely, the last third would only continue to circle and flesh out the main concept.
I'm not sure if this is a bad thing or not. It is very repetitive - and yet stays interesting. I'm not desperate to finish it, but I could have if I had more time. Which I don't; I'll be returning it to the library in the morning.
Basically, this book is a guy on a soapbox. And it works.

The concept itself is an interesting one - basically, that we can't predict the future as well as we think we can, and so instead of planning for specific contingencies, we should plan to be flexible. And pay more attention to the comparative worst and best outcomes, not how likely we think either of them to be.

A few thoughts on this:
1. Well duh! Look, scientists have figured out what writers of fiction knew all along!
          Okay, so that may not be entirely fair. But there were several points made that reminded me of literature. Terry Pratchett's yetis, for example, or Vonnegut's Tralfalmadorian zoo.

2. Hmm. Noticing some connections to Numb3rs. Jury's still out on whether or not Charlie understands this concept, but a conversation from the very first episode does seem to encapsulate it:
         Charlie: "Larry. Something went wrong. And I don't know what. And now it's like I can't even think."
          Larry: "Well, let me guess. You tried to solve a problem involving human behavior, and it blew up in your face."
         Charlie: "Yeah, pretty much."
         Larry: "Okay, well - Charles, you are a mathematician, and you're always looking for the elegant solution. Human behavior is rarely, if ever, elegant!"

3. Hey! Somebody didn't like his history teacher. Honestly, while I see his point in applying this concept to the study of history, I'm left feeling more offended than anything else. His criticisms of historians are harsh, and stem mainly from an over-simplification of the field. People who really love history and study it in depth are the last ones to think the way he accuses them of thinking.
          But that could just be me. History major here, feeling very defensive.